2025: Buy Now or Wait?

What Does the 2025 Property Market Look Like?

Using CoreLogic data from late 2024, Jeremy highlights just how differently individual markets can perform at the same point in time: Sydney recorded annual growth of 3.31%, Melbourne declined by 2%, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth all posted double-digit growth, Hobart was negative, Canberra was roughly flat, and Darwin saw a slight uplift. Including rental yield, total returns showed an even starker gap, Sydney's total return sat around 6.5% (annual growth plus roughly 3.2% yield on a median value around $1.2 million), while the difference between the best (Perth) and worst (Melbourne) performing markets came to around 25 percentage points, equivalent to roughly $100,000 on a $400,000 property in a single year.

Jeremy's key point: this scale of difference is exactly why market selection matters so much more than simply deciding to invest "long term" in any one location, since the opportunity cost of choosing the wrong market dwarfs smaller costs like body corporate fees or a buyers agent's fee.

Doing It Yourself vs. Using a Buyers Agent

Damien notes two broad paths: researching independently, or engaging an experienced buyers agent to leverage their relationships and expertise. He cautions that a buyers agent operating from a single-state office may naturally lean toward recommending markets they're licensed and positioned in, rather than genuinely wherever the data points, citing hypothetical past enthusiasm for Melbourne as an example of this kind of location bias. Jeremy notes that at the time of recording, Melbourne's median value ($770,000) sits behind Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Canberra, suggesting it may be due for a period of catch-up growth.

When Does Buying Make Sense?

Using a $450,000 example property at 88% LVR (requiring roughly $80,000 in deposit and costs, excluding a buyers agent fee), Jeremy suggests that for someone with this level of savings and no existing property exposure, it's generally a reasonable time to enter the market, provided personal cash flow and lifestyle circumstances are properly accounted for.

Should Investors Wait for a Boom?

Jeremy presents a 40-plus-year chart (1981–2024) showing periods of double-digit ("boom") growth across Australia's five largest cities. While there have been periods where none of the big five were in boom conditions (the early 1990s, late 1990s, 2011–2012, and 2018–2020), Jeremy notes that healthy, sub-boom growth (say 7–9% per annum) still occurred during many of these gaps, and that even modest capital growth (as little as 4% per annum) can still make property ownership worthwhile.

Extending the analysis to the top 10, then top 20, significant urban areas (SUAs) by population (out of just over 100 nationally), the gaps narrow further still. Jeremy's overall conclusion: across the last 40 years, there has essentially never been a time when no market in Australia was worth investing in, provided investors are willing to look beyond only the five largest capital cities. He notes a nationwide boom occurred in both the early 2000s and around the post-COVID period, and that even in narrower historical windows (such as Adelaide's flat run from 1981 to 1998), it was still possible to find growth opportunities elsewhere in the country during that same period.

Reasons an Investor Might Genuinely Wait

Jeremy and Damien note two legitimate (rather than fear-driven) reasons to hold off: genuine upcoming cash flow constraints (family planning, a job change, travel, or a major upcoming purchase like a car), and needing to protect a cash buffer, rather than buying and being left financially exposed. On strengthening a deposit before buying, Jeremy cautions that "waiting to buy a bigger asset later" needs to be weighed against the fact that markets an investor might target in a few years' time are just as likely to be flat right now as genuinely "running away" from them.

FOMO vs. Analysis Paralysis

Damien shares his own experience around 2014, overwhelmed by conflicting advice from various property seminars and experts, each pushing a different strategy, leading to genuine analysis paralysis until he discovered a more data-driven approach (through Ryan McLean's podcast, where he first encountered Jeremy). Jeremy shares a similar personal experience of trusting a confident-sounding but ultimately unreliable source early in his own investing journey, and reflects that he once believed in the idea of a single "perfect" suburb and property, before realising that this framing itself was part of the problem. Both agree that genuine analysis paralysis usually reflects a legitimate need for better information or clarity, rather than a reason to avoid the decision altogether, and that the goal should be addressing those specific concerns (rather than "being brave" and jumping in regardless) before proceeding.

Listener Question: A Smaller Borrowing Capacity

A listener, Dark Excel 4808, asks whether, with borrowing capacity currently limited to around $300,000–$350,000 (funded via equity release from an existing investment property), it would be better to buy a smaller unit now to get into the market, or wait and save toward a larger purchase.

Damien's first step is questioning whether that borrowing limit is genuinely fixed, suggesting a second opinion from another broker, checking whether refinancing existing debt (including HECS), reducing credit card limits, or removing a car loan or lease could free up additional capacity, and clarifying whether the goal is a future owner-occupied home (in which case over-committing to investment debt now could limit that later purchase).

Jeremy ran a quick search within that $300,000–$350,000 range nationally and found more viable, demand-exceeding-supply markets than expected (mostly units at this price point, unsurprisingly offering strong yields). His advice: don't hold back purely due to budget size, if genuinely affordable, proceed, while still getting a second opinion on whether the borrowing limit is truly fixed. Damien adds a note of caution about relying only on a handful of isolated high-scoring suburbs rather than a genuine cluster, recommending a closer look at common postcodes or local government areas across the shortlist as a more reliable starting signal than any single standout suburb.

Listener Question: Investing in Victoria During Its Downturn

A second listener, Arango, asks whether investing in Victoria still makes sense given the state's prolonged downturn, and whether Victoria's comparatively higher land tax should factor into the decision versus investing in another state.

Jeremy models a $660,000 Victorian property (a representative typical value across several local government areas currently showing demand exceeding supply, around a 4% yield), including an estimated land tax cost of around $2,000 a year (using a rough 0.39% rule-of-thumb estimate against purchase price, while noting land tax is technically calculated on land value specifically, not full property value). Against an estimated $13,000 annual cash flow shortfall and roughly $43,000 in estimated growth (around a 6.2% rate), the property still nets an estimated $30,000 profit over 12 months, making the $2,000 land tax cost comparatively insignificant next to the scale of potential capital growth.

Jeremy's broader point: capital growth consistently dwarfs smaller line-item costs like land tax or body corporate fees, and investors who rule out an entire state or market based on a relatively small fixed cost, without weighing it against the far larger swings in potential capital growth, are likely focusing on the wrong variable. He acknowledges investors should still factor in personal cash flow tolerance, but maintains that land tax specifically shouldn't be a deciding factor in whether to invest in Victoria.

Closing Thoughts

Jeremy and Damien's overall message: balance the fear of overpaying against the fear of missing out, base decisions on sound data and genuine personal financial circumstances, and be cautious about ruling out markets based on a single data point in isolation. For most investors still in the accumulation phase, capital growth should remain the primary focus, while investors closer to retirement or taking on significant new debt should plan more conservatively. They close by encouraging listeners to like, comment, subscribe, and reach out with questions for future episodes.